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Edson Gould, deceased author of the once-famous Findings & Forecasts investment newsletter often said that “History always repeats, only the details change”. This insight, a handful of carefully chosen technical indicators, and a deep understanding of crowd psychology enabled him to make some remarkable calls during his career. The graphic below plots Gould’s “Sentimeter” (“the market price of $1 of dividends”) the inverse of the US 10-year Treasury yield, the gold price and an index of commodity prices. Needless to say he was quite right; “History always repeats, only the details change”.

 

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graphic showing evolution of secular market cycles

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Sources: St. Louis Fed FRED, NBER Macrohistory Database, Irrational Exuberance, Measuring Worth